Asia Times Online, 21 Mar 2009, R M Cutler
MONTREAL - Asian equity markets had their best week in months, yet at least one technical analyst has called it a "dead cat bounce". Bloomberg News reported the skepticism of Martin Marnick of Helmsman Global Trading, who used technical indicators to reach this judgment. The MSCI Asia APEX 50 Index, which had risen 8% in the five days before Friday's trading session (and 12.9% in the previous eight days), has a medium term resistance in a band from 500 to 520.
But Marnick wisely hedges his bets by saying that even if the index exceeds that level, it will still fall again later. The last rally that it sustained above that level was last October, when it hit 588 before declining to its medium-term low of 389. In late mid-morning local time, it is at 467. The question, then, is whether the
rebound from 403 on from last November is a short-term corrective rally in a bear market set to resume its fundamental character, or the beginning of a longer multiphase rally still within a broader and longer bear market.
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