China's Year of Living Precariously

Asia Sentinel, 22 Dec 2008, Mark O'Neill

"In a remarkably frank study published last week called “Analysis and Predictions of Chinese society in 2009.” the China Academy of Social Sciences set out the three big risks for the year ahead:
  • Unemployment could go as high as 9.4 per cent because of the factory closures caused by the financial crisis, the Sichuan earthquake and other natural disasters and polluting firms shut by tighter environmental laws.

  • The lack of affordable housing has urban residents angrier than any other issue: 47 per cent of people surveyed said that they lived in bad housing and could not afford their own home. “The housing conditions of low-income people in large and medium cities is far behind those of other groups of the population,” the study said. That is being exacerbated by a collapsing housing bubble that may be almost as big as America’s. Property prices, down from their peaks, still have as much as 20-30 percent to fall before 70 percent of the population can afford to buy Both the central and provincial governments have announced measures, including cuts to transaction costs easier mortgage terms, especially for first-time buyers, and extended payment schedules for developers’ land premium installments, all to no avail.

  • The increasing gap between rich and poor, officials and common people is cause for increasing outrage. “These two conflicts are the most likely fuses for social conflict,” the survey. 68.8 per cent of those surveyed said that, during the last 10 years, officials had gained too many benefits, while workers, farmers and migrant workers had gained too little: 36.3 per cent said these conflicts would intensify in future."

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