China Plays a Better Long-Term Hand

Asia Sentinel, 20 Nov 2008, John Browne

"In America, as we pointed out, President Bush's first stimulus package amounted to some US$172 billion. However, it was geared 87 percent to consumers and only some 13 percent to producers. This was in keeping with the fact that consumption accounts for 72 percent of the American economy, measured by gross domestic product.

In contrast, China's stimulus package is to be some US$600 billion, roughly four times larger than the equivalent program in the United States. However, the American economy is five times the size of that of China, so in relative terms the Chinese package is the equivalent of some US$3 trillion. In other words, to stimulate its economy China is spending some 17.4 times more than America, on a relative basis.

Furthermore the Chinese spending package is far more likely to have counter recessionary benefits than the American stimulus programs. Whereas the American package was geared to consumers, the Chinese package is geared to productive infrastructure projects that will add to the long term competitiveness of its economy. In China, real wages will filter down to consumers in the form of real wealth, as China's economy gears itself up to become an increasingly effective challenger to American superpower status."

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