3 Aug 2008
Does former Prime Minister, now Senior Minister, Goh Chok Tong read Yawning Bread? In a speech made recently, he conceded that constituencies in Singapore tend to be so homogenous that the first-past-the-post system works in favour of the People's Action Party (PAP):"We should not really be surprised that the ruling party has such a large share of seats. Unlike other larger countries with rural and urban populations, poor and rich areas, and separate ethnic enclaves, we are small and have relatively similar constituencies. Although we have 14 GRCs and 9 SMCs, they are more or less alike in population profile and housing characteristics.... Because the voter profiles are similar, so are their attitudes towards the government and their reaction to policies. Singapore is, therefore, like one big constituency. Hence, in a first-past-the-post Westminster system of democracy, it must be that any party that wins, wins big."
-- Goh Chok Tong, Senior Minister, 26 July 2008, speech at Hougang constituency National Day dinner
This is what I have repeatedly pointed out, as far back as 1999 (Reengineering our electoral system) and most recently this year in The mathematics of elections 2. The system as designed tends to return landslide victories, which cannot be conducive to nurturing a government-in-waiting. An opposition party, even if it captures the imagination of a significant minority, will still find itself severely underrepresented in Parliament. Not only will that be demoralising, limiting its ability to recruit talent, it will deprive its members of parliamentary experience.
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