Unusually Large Swing in the Government’s Data Leaves Economists Questioning the Relevance of Advance Estimate

WSJ Blog, 20 Feb 2014
Singapore’s economy was thought to have contracted in the fourth quarter, but the government said Thursday that on second thought, it expanded – and quite quickly.
The city-state’s gross domestic product rose 6.1% on an annualized, seasonally adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, far above the 2.7% on-quarter contraction estimated in January. Stronger December data changed the picture, apparently.
“The advance estimate has somewhat lost its relevance given that it is always subjected to massive revisions,” DBS Bank economist Irvin Seah said. Full story

Singapore Government changed GDP numbers for Q4 2013 from 2.7 percent contraction to 6.1 percent growth, pushing whole year economic growth to 4.1 percent

RTT News, 19 Feb 2014
Singapore's gross domestic product expanded 5.5 percent on year in the fourth quarter of 2013, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Thursday's revised reading.
That's up from last month's preliminary reading for a 4.4 percent gain, and it follows the 5.8 percent growth in the third quarter.
On an annualized quarterly basis, GDP jumped 6.1 percent - up sharply from the preliminary report that showed a 2.7 percent contraction. It's also up from the 0.3 percent gain in Q3. Full story

Related:
Singapore economy grows a faster-than-estimated 4.1% in 2013 - Asiaone.com

OPINION: Singapore's Bear Market May Have Just Begun - Jesse Colombo

Forbes.com, 3 Feb 2014

The STI has experienced a serious technical breakdown this week that is even more worrisome when considering the fact that Singapore has been experiencing a dangerous economic bubble in recent years. The STI’s breakdown has occurred at the same time as the technical breakdowns of several stock indices in the U.S. and Japan, which is a further confirmation of the bearish action in global financial markets. Full story

Despite mega construction projects and massive influx of foreigners, Singapore GDP contracts in Q4 as manufacturing weakened considerably

Free Malaysia Today, 2 Jan 2013
Singapore’s economy contracted more than expected in the fourth quarter as manufacturing activity weakened, data showed today, casting some doubt on market expectations for a slight pick-up in growth over 2014.
According to advance estimates from Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry, GDP contracted an annualised and seasonally adjusted 2.7% in the final quarter of 2013 from the July-September period.
That reversed a 2.2% expansion in the third quarter and was weaker than the median 1.6% contraction forecast in a Reuters survey. Full story

Related:

1. Singapore GDP contracts in Q4, hurt by sluggish manufacturing - Reuters India
2. Singapore GDP Contracted Last Quarter as Output Eased - Bloomberg
3. Singapore 4Q GDP -2.7% on Quarter, Adjusted, Annualized - Nasdaq

Singapore economy shrank 1 percent in the third quarter

CNBC.com, 13 Oct 2013
Singapore's economy shrank 1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the July to September period, slowing sharply from double-digit growth in the previous three months.
The deceleration in growth was partly driven by the manufacturing sector, with activity slowing in July and August due to weakness in the electronics and pharmaceutical industries.
Financial services were also a drag, as equity and foreign exchange market activities fell on concerns over the Federal Reserve winding down its monetary stimulus and the threat of military intervention in Syria. Full story

Singapore plots economic lift-off with satellites, spacecraft

Malaya.com.ph, 25 Jul 2013
Singapore’s foray into the $300 billion-a-year space industry may seem like a lucrative venture, but the path is lined with risks, especially in satellite manufacturing where Western firms have long dominated and entry barriers are high.
The push into space technology, announced earlier this year, will initially focus on satellites to meet growing demand for top-speed Internet connections as well as high-resolution images commonly used in surveillance, forestry and energy exploration.
The venture may also help rekindle Singapore’s electronics sector by creating high-paying jobs in the satellites and components segment to replace jobs lost with the decline of disc media and computer parts manufacturing. Full story

Singapore Exports Fall 8.8 Percent in Longest Slump Since Global Crisis

Bloomberg, 17 Jul 2013
Singapore’s exports in June extended the longest run of declines since the global financial crisis, suggesting the island’s economic growth last quarter may be lower than the government initially estimated.
Non-oil domestic exports slid 8.8 percent from a year earlier, falling for a fifth month, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today.
“The decline in electronics demand is unlikely to turn around,” Irvin Seah, a Singapore-based economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd., said before the report. “External headwinds remain strong. Data from the U.S. have been mixed and Europe is still stuck in recession.” Full story

Related:

1. Singapore's exports fall in June - Xinhua
2. Singapore exports ended 2Q on a sour note - Yahoo! Finance Singapore

Singapore second-quarter GDP growth strongest in over two years

Reuters India, 12 Jul 2013
(Reuters) - Singapore's economy grew an annualized and seasonally adjusted 15.2 percent in the second quarter from the first, far outstripping expectations as manufacturing staged a strong rebound, the government's advanced estimates showed on Friday.
The manufacturing sector expanded by an annualized and seasonally adjusted 37.6 percent, turning around from a decline of 12.7 percent in the first quarter. Services and construction both gained 9.0 percent during the quarter. Full story

Related:

1. Singapore second-quarter GDP growth strongest in over two years - BusinessWeek
2. Singapore's Economy Expands Faster Than Expected in 2Q - NASDAQ
3. Singapore's economic growth zooms past forecasts - MartketWatch
4. Singapore Grows Soars 15.2% in Second Quarter - CNBC.com

Smog May Cost Singapore's Economy More than 1997 Pollution Crisis, Says Analysts

International Business Times, 24 Jun 2013
Thick smog engulfing Singapore from neighbouring Indonesia's forest fires could potentially cost the economy more than the country's 1997 haze crisis
It comes at a time when Singapore's fragile manufacturing sector knocked the economy to a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in the opening three months of 2013.
Many analysts say that the situation could be worse than the 1997 haze crisis that swept across south east Asia, when slash and burn farming in Indonesia caused smoke to billow across the region causing visibility and health problems. It cost the affected countries, including Singapore, around $9bn (€6.9bn, £5.8bn). Full story

Related:
Singapore, Malaysia face economic hit from prolonged smog - Reuters UK

Singapore's economy starts to choke on Indonesia smoke

Yahoo! Finance Singapore, 22 Jun 2013
The severe haze over Singapore caused by forest fires in Indonesia could hurt the city-state's economy if it persists for weeks, economists said Friday as the pollution index hit new record levels.
Tourist spots are shutting down, companies are allowing staff members to work from home and a VIP airport has suspended operations. Some Singapore restaurants were almost deserted during the normally busy Friday lunch period.
As thick grey smoke and the acrid smell of burning wood and grass smothered the city-state for a fifth day running, economists said tourism in particular could suffer from Singapore's worst environmental emergency since the 1997 haze crisis. Full story

Singapore avoids another technical recession as GDP being revised to show a rise of 1.8% in Q1

RTTNews, 22 May 2013
Singapore's gross domestic product expanded by a seasonally adjusted annualized 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the previous three months, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Thursday's revised reading.
That's sharply higher than last month's advanced estimate that showed a 1.4 percent contraction - although it's still down from the 3.3 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2012. Full story

Related:

1. Singapore 1st Quarter GDP Rises 1.8% - Nasdaq
2. Singapore growth forecast still stuck at 1-3% despite 1Q13 gains - Yahoo! Finance Singapore

OPINION: Manufacturers struggle as the Singapore changes its economic model

The Economist, 4 May 2013
CONTRARY to what many imagine about affluent Singapore, the economy is not all about banks and shopping malls. Manufacturing and industry account for about 30% of the country’s GDP, a strikingly high figure for an advanced economy. In Britain and France the figure is about 12% and in America even less. Nor is it all about sophisticated multinationals: three-fifths of Singapore’s economy is made up of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The government is proud of the mix of big and small, manufacturing and services, which has helped to spread risk during global downturns.
Now the model is under strain. While other South-East Asian countries have posted impressive, even record, rates of growth over the past few years, Singapore has struggled. Full story

Singapore’s manufacturing fails to bounce, mulling GDP revision

Marketrealist.com, 1 May 2013

Analysts were expecting a 3% drop in production, but the actual figures in industrial production data showed a 4.1% drop. While this is a significant improvement from the 16% drop the previous month, it fell below expectations and disappointed the market.
Analysts’ forecasts were driven by the improvements shown in exports earlier in the month. Non-oil exports were up 8%, which sent a signal to the market that a bounce was imminent. Additionally, the biomedical segment, which accounts for 18% part of the overall production, had a slow start of the year due to the holidays and unforeseen shutdowns. Full story

Singapore's economy expected to shrink 0.6% in Q1

Malaysia Star, 12 Apr 2013
Based on advance estimates, the Singapore economy contracted by 0.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2013, compared to the 1.5 per cent growth in the preceding quarter, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy contracted by 1.4 per cent, down from the 3.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter.
On a year-on-year basis, the manufacturing sector contracted by 6.5 per cent in the first quarter, following the 1.1 per cent decline in the previous quarter.   Full story

Related:
Chart Singapore's GDP growth is tumbling down - Yahoo! Finance Singapore

Singapore Keeps Currency Gain as Inflation Outweighs Growth Sag

BusinessWeek, 11 Apr 2013
Singapore’s central bank said it will retain the existing pace of currency appreciation to combat lingering inflation, even after the economy unexpectedly contracted last quarter.
“This policy stance is assessed to be appropriate for containing inflationary pressures, anchoring inflation expectations, and facilitating the restructuring of the economy towards sustainable growth,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore said today in a statement following its semi-annual exchange-rate review. Full story

Related:
Singapore keeps tight monetary policy stance - Malaysia Star

Singapore GDP contracts 1.4 percent in Q1 as exports fell the most since 2009

Yahoo! Finance Singapore, 11 Apr 2013
Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 1.4 percent in the three months through March 31 from the previous quarter, when it rose 3.3 percent, the Trade Ministry said today. The median of 10 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for 1.7 percent expansion.
The Southeast Asian nation’s exports fell the most since 2009 in February, while industrial production slid the most in at least three years. Full story

Related:

1. Singapore Keeps Currency Policy as Inflation Outweighs GDP Drop - Bloomberg
2. Singapore 1Q GDP Contracts 1.4% on Quarter - Nasdaq
3. Singapore economy contracts 1.4 percent in Q1: govt - Yahoo! News Singapore 
4. Singapore's central bank holds policy steady - Xinhua  
5. Singapore Central Bank Stands Pat As Economy Contracts - Nasdaq

After the Dire Data, Singapore Risks Another Contraction

CNBC.com, 26 Mar 2013
The outlook for the wealthy island nation of Singapore is turning increasingly grim with a recent mix of downbeat economic indicators pointing to a contraction for the economy in the current quarter.
ING downgraded its growth forecast for the city state on Tuesday, calling for a contraction of 2.1 percent year on year for the three months to March, from an earlier forecast of a 3.4 percent expansion.
Credit Suisse also revised its numbers downwards; it now expects Singapore's economy to shrink one percent over the same period, compared to its initial forecast of a 0.5 percent contraction. Full story

Economists raise Singapore 2013 GDP growth outlook to 2.8 pct: MAS

Reuters, 20 Mar 2013
SINGAPORE, March 20 (Reuters) - Singapore's economy will likely grow at a slightly faster pace this year than expected earlier, helped by a pick-up in manufacturing and financial services, a central bank survey released on Wednesday showed.
Singapore, a wealthy city-state of 5.3 million people, twice came close to falling into recession last year as global demand for electronics plunged and weak financial markets took a toil on investment banks. Full story

Singapore revised Q4 GDP sharply upwards to bump full year growth to 1.3 percent

Question: Singapore's GDP numbers can be stretched like rubber band?

RTT News, 21 Feb 2013
Singapore's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted annualized 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previous three months, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Friday's revised reading.
That's up sharply from last month's original reading for a 1.8 percent increase following the revised 4.8 percent contraction in Q3.
On a yearly basis, GDP was revised up to 1.5 percent from 1.1 percent following the flat reading in the previous three months.
For all of 2012, GDP was bumped up to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent. Link

Also read:
Singapore dodges an expected recession by revising first nine months GDP numbers downwards in order to raise Q4 data

Related:

1. Singapore GDP grew more than expected in Q4 - Reuters
2. Singapore GDP Growth Beats Initial Estimate as Asia Recovers - Bloomberg
3. Singapore Economy Expands at Faster Pace in 4Q Than Earlier Expected - 4-traders
4. Singapore growth exceeds estimates in fourth quarter - BBC News
5. Singapore's 2012 GDP disappoints with 1.3% growth - Yahoo! Finance Singapore

Singapore Exports Drop Most in 14 Months, Hopes of Early Recovery Dashed

Bloomberg, 17 Jan 2013
Singapore’s exports declined the most in 14 months in December as manufacturers shipped fewer electronics and pharmaceuticals, hurting economic recovery.
Non-oil domestic exports slid 16.3 percent from a year earlier, after a revised 2.6 percent drop in November, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. The median of 18 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 7.6 percent decline. The drop was the most since October 2011, based on previously reported data. Exports rose 0.5 percent in 2012, the worst performance in three years, according to Bloomberg calculations. Full story

Related:
Singapore Dec non-oil domestic exports fall 16.3 pct from year earlier - Reuters